What it takes to keep your New Year’s resolutions

Today’s Wall Street Journal has a really good article on what it takes to keep your New Year’s resolutions, “More Rational Resolutions,” by Angela Chen.

My main takeaway was a technique called “pre-hindsight,” which is part of a three-day workshop hosted by the Center for Applied Rationality:

[P]re-hindsight . . . uses emotional cues to create more foolproof plans.  It works like this: Imagine that six months have passed, and you haven’t achieved the body of your dreams.  How surprised are you?  The less surprised you are, the less likely it is you will succeed at your goal.  Then think in detail about each reason you wouldn’t be surprised if June comes and the number on the scale hasn’t budged.  Each reason—whether “I don’t have time” or “I don’t like running in the mornings”—is a possible cause of failure.  Using the surprise level to anticipate these is crucial to creating a plan to address each weak point.

Common sense, sure.  But while reading this passage, it occurred to me that some resolutions I might make would be a piece of cake to keep.  I would be really surprised come June if I hadn’t managed to achieve a goal like drinking more water every day or reading more books.  On the other hand, some goals would be a pleasant surprise if they actually had gotten accomplished—which means that on some subconscious level they must be goals that I don’t truly believe I can reach in the first place.

So what I’m doing tonight is listing a few goals I have for the coming year.  Then, under each thing I’d like to accomplish, I’m noting everything I can anticipate holding me back.  These potential causes of failure, and not my actual goals, constitute my real New Year’s resolutions.

All the individual action items comprising these resolutions are not just a collection of random weaknesses, either.  Often they exist in a cause-and-effect chain of roadblocks.  So I’m also figuring out which items I need to address first and setting up calendar with reasonable deadlines for eliminating each “barrier” to my eventual success.

Every few years it becomes fashionable to bash New Year’s resolutions.  Articles appear in the newspaper explaining with cynical humor why resolutions are a foolish waste of time.  This year I haven’t seen any such essays, which I take as a hopeful sign for our society as a whole.

Happy New Year!

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Countdown to Downton Abbey (7 days to go) — Cora’s fortune

I knew that it was common near the end of the 1800s for American heiresses to go hunting around Europe for impoverished noblemen.  It was the perfect win-win in some ways: an aristocratic pedigree for America’s nouveau riche and a much-needed cash infusion for Europe’s destitute nobility.

But a couple of American heiresses seem particularly interesting to me now that I’ve gotten to know Cora Crawley, whom Lord Grantham initially married strictly for her fortune (not falling in love with her until about a year after their wedding, if memory serves).

One was Consuelo Vanderbilt, U.S. railroad heiress, who at age 18 in 1895 nabbed the Duke of Marlborough.  Or should I say her mother nabbed him on her behalf.  Poor Consuelo.  Her pushy mother picked out the fortune-hunting Duke as the most highly placed of potential noble suitors and forced her beautiful young daughter to marry him.  Consuelo brought a huge dowry into the loveless marriage, £2 million at the time, which would be about £80 million or $67 million in 2010.

Another was Jennie Jerome, who married the younger brother of Consuelo Vanderbilt’s Duke’s father.  So, in other words, Jennie was the aunt of the Duke who married Consuelo.  Jennie also was the mother of Sir Winston Churchill, who eventually served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom during World War II.

Interestingly, the Dukes of Marlborough family is a branch of the Spencer family, the very old and important aristocratic family from which also came Diana, Princess of Wales.

As an American I can’t really get too excited by all the royalty/aristocracy-as-celebrity nonsense, but I do find the history of these families rather fascinating nonetheless.  If you’re interested in learning more, this very well-written Daily Mail article from three years ago tells the story of these and other Gilded-Age American heiresses-turned-aristocrats in more depth.

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Visits from Jack Frost

Frost on porch window

In my childhood home there was a window situated right at the turn in our staircase, only slightly higher than the steps themselves and just a short flight down from the second floor.

Very dangerous spot for a window, if you ask me.  Full of deadly possibility.  Just one sleepy tumble in the middle of the night.  One aggrieved sibling’s shove.  One careless misstep in the morning race to get out the door.  If you’re a parent, your own feverishly overactive imagination can surely fill in the tragic outcome of these and similar scenarios.

But nothing bad ever actually happened, and in fact that window holds a special place in my memory.

On cold winter mornings the glass bloomed with the most gorgeous swirls of frost etched in amazing, ever-changing icy patterns.  I can still visualize the tiny starbursts, the spiky tendrils that unfurled like the flicker of a whip.  “Looks like Jack Frost painted our window last night,” my mother would say.  We learned to sit on the staircase landing, lips not quite touching the glass, and slowly release our warm breath to generate new trails of sparkling crystals across the window’s clear surface.

Jack Frost never visits my adult home—a downside of energy efficiency, I guess.  But the glass on our unheated sun porch is single-paned, and when it’s bitterly cold like today, opening the inside door works the same magic as exhaling moist air from our lungs.

Merry Christmas!

Frost on porch window (2)

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Countdown to Downton Abbey (13 days to go) — The Dowager Countess’s “Mom” Jeans

Or at least the equivalent thereof.

Have you noticed that as other women’s hemlines rise and hairstyles modernize, Violet Crawley (played by Maggie Smith) remains somewhat stuck in a pre-WWI Edwardian time warp?  Her hats are a bit smaller and slightly updated in style, her voluminous skirts and jackets are a bit more streamlined, but 1921’s Violet Crawley looks much the same as the 1912 version of the series’ first episode.

I’ve always been fascinated by photos from the 1920s and ’30s in which modern-looking young women in short dresses and bobbed haircuts stand next to grandmothers in pre-flapper-era long skirts and Gibson-girl pompadour hairstyles of the pre-war 1900s.  It’s like the contrast of eras seen in circa-1930s movies like Dinner at Eight (1933), that classic George Cukor comedy/drama, where aging actress Carlotta Vance often looks similarly dated alongside glamorous floozy Kitty (Jean Harlow).  In the film’s closing moments, though, yesterday’s-news Carlotta lets fly a zinger that sails right over Kitty’s empty head.

Think beehives and white lipstick that occasionally lingered into the mid-1970s when most women had moved on to lip gloss and short blow-dried hairstyles.  Think of sideburns and leisure suits, mullets and heavy-metal perms.  Very stylish in their time, but . . .

Or think of mom jeans, which weren’t a joke until a good 10-15 years after their fashion heyday.  In this New Kids on the Block video (1988), the blonde girl fantasy-figure appears to be wearing a pair 🙂

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He couldn’t keep a jailer: Why Nelson Mandela was a great leader

Much has been said about Nelson Mandela over the past day.  But one thing I haven’t heard anyone speak of on the news channels—because, really, it’s pretty small potatoes when compared with this man’s towering greatness in so many areas—is the trouble Nelson Mandela’s prison had keeping guards who would treat him like a prisoner.

Here’s an excerpt from the History Channel’s biography of Mandela (the odd wording appears to be the result of an editing error, but the passage is copied verbatim):

During his incarceration Mandela taught himself to speak Afrikaans and learned about Afrikaner history. He was able to converse with his guards in their own language, using his charm and intelligence to reason with them and try to understand the way they thought. This caused the authorities to replace the guards around regularly Mandela as it was felt that they could were becoming too lenient in their treatment of their famous prisoner.

Two things strike me as particularly significant here.  First, Mandela taught himself to speak Afrikaans. The commitment it takes to do something like that is tremendous.  Mandela had many attributes that contributed to his greatness: his charm, his intelligence, and his kind, respectful treatment of others.

But, second, it was his newfound ability speak his captors’ language that made it possible for him to create friends of enemies.  Not just once or twice, but systematically . . . to the point that his jailers had to be “regularly” replaced.

The world could be such a better place it we tried, in our own small ways, to emulate Nelson Mandela’s example.

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Is climate change cyclical?

Although most media reports on climate change focus on looming disaster, I’ve read some interesting articles recently that look backward and provide some long-term perspective.

Melting glaciers are revealing ancient human artifacts as they recede.  Beneath ice thousands of years old lies a time-capsule of the once more temperate climate that was home to our ancestors.

For over twenty years now, archeologists have scrambled to study these artifacts as quickly as they emerge, before exposure to air causes them to rot.  According to an article that appeared this past August in Archaeology, a publication of the Archaeological Institute of America:

When conditions are right, it’s as simple as picking the past up off the ground.  “The ice is a time machine,” says Lars Pilö and archaeologist who works for the Oppland County council [in southern Norway].  “When you’re really lucky, the artifacts are exposed for the first time since they were lost.”

“The next fifty years will be decisive,” says another archeologist quoted in the article.  “If you don’t do it now, they will be lost.”

Because I’m not a scientist, I can’t speak to the science of climate change.  However, my background in the liberal arts provides a way of making connections that is more expansive and inclusive than the rigorous control of the scientific method.  Not a better way of making connections, and certainly not worse . . . just different.

So while it frightens me to consider projections that 90% of the world’s glaciers may disappear by 2100, it also puzzles me to read that these same glaciers have been around for a mere 6,000 years.  According to science, humans have been around more than thirty times longer.

What was human existence like in the nearly 200,000 years before those glaciers formed?  What was the planet’s geography like when so little of the earth’s water was trapped in a frozen state?  Was quality of life seriously compromised?  If our climate reverts to its previous state, will we face challenges that humans have seen before?

Important note/disclaimer: As a scholar who studies language and communication, I’m both surprised and a bit shocked by the scornful rhetoric directed at “deniers.”  Scientists are rational, and skepticism is part of any rational discussion, so I’m pretty sure the anger does not originate within that community.  As I have no desire to engage in political hate on either the sending or receiving end, please note that I make no scientific claims in this blog post.  Just asking questions about evidence I find interesting 🙂

It’s intriguing to think about the millions of years Earth has been here and the multiple cycles of warming and cooling fluctuation our planet has apparently experienced—several of which almost certainly occurred during our species’ lifetime.

Despite all of our achievement, humans remain so vulnerable, so small, and so defenseless against the relentless, irresistible forces of nature.

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Countdown to Downton Abbey (36 days to go) – Pharaoh and Isis

The title of today’s post refers to the countdown clock on the Masterpiece “Downton Abbey” page on the PBS website.  For those of us anxiously awaiting Season 4 (or “Series 4,” as they say in England, where this season’s episodes have already run), the Downton Abbey counter shows exactly how many days, hours, and minutes remain until the period drama airs again on U.S. television.  Which will be January 5th at 8:00 p.m. Central Time, FYI.

(On a side note, another of my favorite television shows, “Sherlock,” begins its third season on Masterpiece two weeks later.  “The Empty Hearse”—a title that’s a play on Conan Doyle’s “The Empty House,” the story in which the original Sherlock also returns from the dead—is set to run on January 19, immediately following that night’s episode of Downton Abbey.  I hardly ever watch television, so that’s going to be an unusually busy Sunday evening for me 🙂 )

In the meantime, I’ve been reflecting on small things in the show that sparked my curiosity or connected with other things I already knew.  Just for fun, I decided to devote a few blog posts to them while awaiting Season 4.

Today’s topic: Robert Crawley’s dog.

According to a quiz in the September 17, 2011, edition of the British newspaper The Telegraph, the dog’s name is Pharaoh.  That quiz also identifies the dog as a black Labrador, which is incorrect, as we all can see at the start of every episode.  The dog is actually a yellow Lab.  But according to a few sources I found online, in Season 1 Crawley’s dog is apparently named Pharaoh.  I don’t remember ever hearing that name.

However, I do remember the episode in which Thomas decided to lock up the dog in a shack in the woods and then “find” her the next day (part of his career advancement strategy to get promoted from footman to valet).  During the search, Crawley called out his dog’s name several times, and I took note because the name was so unexpected.  Not Rover, not Max, not Fido—but Isis, the Egyptian goddess.

Pharaoh and Isis.  Names that are a subtle reminder of the craze for all things Egyptian that swept England and the U.S. in the early 1900s.  But they are even more appropriate given the fact that Downton Abbey’s real-life counterpart has an exceptionally strong “Egypt” connection.

Filming of Downton Abbey’s exterior and main interior spaces takes place at Highclere Castle, an English country house that since 1679 has been home to the Carnarvon family.  The fifth Earl of Carnarvon was an Egyptologist who funded and participated in exploration of Egyptian tombs in the early 1900s.  You may recall that it was Lord Carnarvon and archeologist Howard Carter who discovered King Tut’s tomb in 1922.

When Lord Canarvon died five months later (giving rise to the legend of “The Mummy’s Curse”), his widow was forced to sell his collection of Egyptian artifacts to the Metropolitan Museum of New York in order to pay “death duties.”  British inheritance taxes had risen incredibly high and were aimed at breaking up large estates, which was one manifestation of the class conflict seen around the world at that time, like the Russian Revolution and the rise of organized labor.

Yet some less significant portions of of Carnarvon’s collection had been stored away in cupboards at Highclere, where they were rediscovered by family members in 1987.  If you visit Highclere Castle today (and good luck to you on that score, because every available date seems to be SOLD OUT), you can see Lord Carnarvon’s Egyptian curiosities on display in the Antiquities Room.

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foraging in the wreckage

35andupcynicismonhold's avatar35andupcynicismonhold

 

Haiyan came, conquered and left the country torn and devastated. More than the usual…

 

 

Tagged as the biggest and strongest cyclone to have landed on the planet, this cathastrophe visited via the regular storm path: Philippines. Locally called Yolanda, the super typhoon wrecked havoc on the Visayas region, particularly in the island of Leyte, 573 kilometers, south of Manila. The nightmarish storm hit the ground on the dawn of November 8, well on to the next day and did rampage for the next 48 hours. Official tally of casualties as of today is 1,841, eighty percent of which are from the Leyte-Samar area.  6, 498 villages have been affected, across nine (9) regions of the country. Disaster officers, however, estimate 10,000 people injured and missing; possibly dead. Total number of persons displaced by the calamity – 600,000.

 

We are at the tail end of the rainy…

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France – November 11, 1918 : The clearing of the Armistice -40 photos

Beautiful and informative photo essay on the clearing in a French woods where the Armistice was signed ending the First World War (aka “The Great War” and, sadly, ironically, “The War to End All Wars”).

Ici & La Nature - Pictures of hiking tours in France and Europe's avatarICI & LA NATURE PICTURES

14-memorial clearing of the armistice compiegne forest

100 years ago

the armistice of the first world war

was signed here

 

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November 11,1918 clearing armistice compiegne

 

 

 

12-memorial of the armistice clearing compiegne forest

11-clearing of the armistice compiegne walk in france

The Armistice that brought to an end of the greatest war in history,

was signed on November 11, 1918,

on this exact spot in the forest of Compiègne.

 

 

 

13-memorial armistice clearing compiegne forest

 

 

The clearing did not exist at that time

and the full-grown trees were so thick

that aerial observation was impossible.

 

 

10-clearing of the armistice rethondes france

 

 

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The two railway tracks that ran across here

were part of  a gunnery rail system branching off from Rethondes station

a mile away and could be used for heavy gun platforms.

 

 

 

18-memorial armistice 1918 compiegne forest france

 

The train bringing the German plenipotentiaries from Tergnier,

where they had boarded it after driving from La Capelle,

arrived at day-break on November 8…

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Milwaukee Christmas Tree arrives at Red Arrow

Yesterday marked the 100th year that the City of Milwaukee has placed a pine tree downtown during the holiday season.  Our longstanding tradition is supposedly second to New York City, but the first tree was not erected at Rockefeller Center until 1931 (unofficially, by the construction workers who were building it, with the first official tree erected two years later in 1933).

Traditionally our tree was installed at Milwaukee’s City Hall.  I remember seeing large, decorated trees near the front entrance arches years ago in the 1980s.  But since construction of the ice rink at Red Arrow Park one block north of City Hall, the tree has been placed there instead.

Yesterday I watched this year’s tree get cut down on television around 6:30 a.m.  Then around ten o’clock I walked over to Starbucks for coffee and a meeting.  By then crews were setting the tree into place beside the not-yet-ice-coated skating rink.  (One nice “extra” associated with teaching at Milwaukee School of Engineering is the opportunity to work downtown and be in the center of city happenings 🙂 )

Milwaukee City Christmas Tree - 1

The city tree is always harvested from a yard somewhere in the metropolitan area.  This year’s tree is a 40-foot Colorado blue spruce donated by the Loving Shepherd Lutheran Church at 39th and Clinton.  It was hoisted from its trunk and driven slowly downtown on a flatbed with a police escort.

Here is video of yesterday’s tree harvest from WTMJ (Channel 4):

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